Leading Constituents of NIFTY50 | My Counter-intuitive Findings

If you follow the blog you would have heard me say our NIFTY-50 index is pretty skewed from a weight-age standpoint, top 10 stocks account for close to 60% of the index, top 25 account for close to 80 and the balance 25 stocks account for just 25% of the index weight-age.

Intuition would tell us, so long as we follow the top 25 constituents i.e. (80% of Weight-age) we should be good. Good in the sense we should be able to predict short term (15 to 60 minutes) trends in the index.

To be frank I along with a few others spent several months in that top 25% rabbit hole, only to realize that the action more often than not begins in the bottom 25 stocks.

Here are some visualizations

Before we move to the visualization, please refer the Legends / Descriptors below

View fullsize

Legends / Descriptors for the NS Advance Relative Strength Indicator

As you see in the Legends we have two indicator panels below the NIFTY Fut price chart. The Top panel refers to the top 25 Stocks and the bottom panel refers to the Next 25 stocks.

Now let me take you though a few sample days when the Bottom 25 Stocks lead the top 25 and also the Index, though I have back-tested this phenomena, I am bound not reveal the specifics, but this is the idea and you can test it for yourself.

View fullsize

29th Aug’19 - Look at the Stocks above +1 SD of VWAP - They lead by close to 15 minutes

View fullsize

5th Sep’19 - Look at the Stocks Above VWAP line - They lead almost all through, even though stocks below -1 SD are fairly high on the top 25 Stocks.

View fullsize

12th Sep’19 - Look at the -1SD line crossing over the % of Stocks above VWAP line - Happened in the bottom 25 Stocks way before it did on the top 25

View fullsize

20th Sep - How can I forget this day - Look at the % of Stocks above 1SD line, again led the upper 25 by close to 20 minutes.

During the trading day, I keep an eye on the bottom 25 stocks and if I notice any divergence, I become cautious, as it could a portent of doom esp., if I am on the wrong side of the trade. Time permitting I also tell my mentees on the slack group.

Something similar happened on the 20th of Sep’19, a day which would be etched in my memory, not because I was positioned on the right side of the trend, but because it was a classic demonstration of almost everything that Mandelbrot says in his book Misbehavior of Markets.

Back to the charts, this phenomena of bottom 25 stocks leading can also be observed through a sectoral index lens, since each of these segments top 25 vs next 25 have a sectoral skew within it, more about it next time.

Before I close -The usual disclaimer applies, don’t use this factor in isolation, there are other factors that I consider before initiating a trade, the purpose of this post is only to illustrate the informational value in tracking the bottom 25 stocks of the NIFTY50 index. About the 20th Sep’19 trade, no I am not saying I predicted it, all that I am saying is the same signal helped me capture a good part of the move.

What I learnt from Victor Neiderhoffer | Article Review

I have been a fan of Victor Niederhoffer for a long time. What a talented multifaceted man. If you are into trading or any kind of speculative business you've got to read his books.

I read this (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2007/10/15/the-blow-up-artist) article about him and thought of sharing some interesting snippets.

1. Experience in some sort of Performance Sport - I do think it helps to have had played a sport or done any performance related thing like Music etc. The reason I think its relevant is from a skill development perspective. All forms of sports or crafts require a progression of skill levels. It also requires us to observe, reflect, deconstruct, attempt and practice tasks. 

2. Discipline, avoiding noise and focusing on Short term moves - Being on time I guess is the first aspect of discipline, alludes to the idea of routines and their importance in success. The second aspect is avoiding noise, as a trader you need to have confidence in your system and approach and you need to avoid noise i.e informational noise. Thankfully I quit TV a decade back, and have never gone back. Lastly, look at that focus on "Short term moves". I have always been against the Random Walk/Fama school, and have been more of a Mandelbrot follower. Good to see the same beliefs at play here. 

3. Market Statistics as an Anchor - It always helps to know how things worked in a similar context in the past. The reason it helps is because prices in the short term are nothing but a reflection of the emotions of people, and that does not change.

4. I told you so! If someone tells you that day trading does not work, its because most traders do not have the skills to make it work, but by itself patterns in shorter periods are far easy to predict than in longer periods.

5. RIP - Efficient Market Hypothesis and Random Walk Theory - The moment you shorten your trading time frame, you will start to see the inefficiencies. If you are a trader reading this, think about Open Close as a separate event and High Low range formation as a different event, and you will see the inefficiencies clearly.

Lastly, understand where risk comes from, I mean risk of ruin. While there is always a defined risk with which we take trades, risk of ruin typically comes from the possibility of an unforeseen event happening and you having no control over it. Read that statement again, the second part especially.

Now think about how to avoid being in that situation, that should be good enough to keep you going in this business.

Happy Trading!